CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The statements relating to BCE’s financial guidance (including revenues, adjusted EBITDA, capital intensity, adjusted EPS and free cash flow) and BCE’s 2023 annualized common share dividend, which are contained on this Webpage, are forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the ‘safe harbour’ provisions of applicable Canadian securities laws and of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward-looking statements, by their very nature, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and are based on several assumptions, both general and specific, which give rise to the possibility that actual results or events could differ materially from our expectations expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements and that our business outlook, objectives, plans and strategic priorities may not be achieved. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events, and we caution you against relying on any of these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage describe our expectations as of February 2, 2023 and, accordingly, are subject to change after such date. Except as may be required by applicable securities laws, we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. From time to time, we consider potential acquisitions, dispositions, mergers, business combinations, investments, monetizations, joint ventures and other transactions, some of which may be significant. Except as otherwise indicated by BCE, forward-looking statements do not reflect the potential impact of any such transactions or of special items that may be announced or that may occur after February 2, 2023. The financial impact of these transactions and special items can be complex and depends on the facts particular to each of them. We therefore cannot describe the expected impact in a meaningful way or in the same way we present known risks affecting our business. Forward-looking statements are presented on this Webpage for the purpose of assisting investors and others in understanding certain key elements of our expected financial results. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Effective with our Q1 2023 results, our previous Bell Wireless and Bell Wireline operating segments are being combined to form a single reporting segment called Bell Communication and Technology Services (Bell CTS). Bell Media remains a distinct operating segment and is unaffected. As a result of our reporting changes, the operational assumptions outlined in this section are presented in accordance with our new reporting segments.
Material Assumptions
A number of economic, market, operational and financial assumptions were made by BCE in preparing its forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage, including, but not limited to the following:
Canadian Economic Assumptions
Our forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions concerning the Canadian economy. In particular, we have assumed:
- Slowing economic growth, given the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimated growth in Canadian gross domestic product of 1.0% in 2023, down from 3.6% in 2022
- Easing, but still elevated, consumer price index (CPI) inflation due to lower energy prices, improvements in global supply chains and the effects of higher interest rates moving through the economy
- Tight labour market
- Slow growth in household spending as higher interest rates weigh on disposable income
- Slow growth in business investment due to slowing demand, elevated borrowing costs and increased uncertainty about future economic conditions
- Prevailing high interest rates expected to remain at or near current levels
- Higher immigration
- Canadian dollar expected to remain near current levels. Further movements may be impacted by the degree of strength of the U.S. dollar, interest rates and changes in commodity prices.
Canadian Market Assumptions
Our forward-looking statements also reflect various Canadian market assumptions. In particular, we have made the following market assumptions:
- A higher level of wireline and wireless competition in consumer, business and wholesale markets
- Higher, but slowing, wireless industry penetration
- A shrinking data and voice connectivity market as business customers migrate to lower-priced telecommunications solutions or alternative over-the-top (OTT) competitors
- The advertising market is adversely impacted due to economic uncertainty resulting from inflationary pressures, increasing risk of recession and ongoing supply chain challenges with improvement expected in the second half of 2023
- Declines in broadcasting distribution undertaking (BDU) subscribers driven by increasing competition from the continued rollout of subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) streaming services together with further scaling of OTT aggregators
Assumptions Concerning our Bell CTS Segment
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal operational assumptions with respect to our Bell CTS segment:
- Maintain our market share of national operators’ wireless postpaid mobile phone net additions and growth of our prepaid subscriber base
- Increased competitive intensity and promotional activity across all regions and market segments
- Ongoing expansion and deployment of Fifth Generation (5G) wireless network and 5G+ service, offering competitive coverage and quality
- Continued diversification of our distribution strategy with a focus on expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) and online transactions
- Moderating growth in mobile phone blended average revenue per user (ARPU), driven by growth in 5G subscriptions, and increased roaming revenue from the easing of travel restrictions implemented as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, partly offset by reduced data overage revenue due among others to the continued adoption of unlimited plans
- Accelerating business customer adoption of advanced 5G, 5G+ and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions
- Improving wireless handset device availability in addition to stable device pricing and margins
- Further deployment of direct fibre to more homes and businesses within our wireline footprint
- Continued growth in retail Internet and Internet protocol television (IPTV) subscribers
- Increasing wireless and Internet-based technological substitution
- Continued aggressive residential service bundle offers from cable TV competitors in our local wireline areas, moderated by growing our share of competitive residential service bundles
- Continued large business customer migration to Internet protocol (IP)-based systems
- Ongoing competitive repricing pressures in our business and wholesale markets
- Continued competitive intensity in our small and medium-sized business markets as cable operators and other telecommunications competitors continue to intensify their focus on business customers
- Traditional high-margin product categories challenged by large global cloud and OTT providers of business voice and data solutions expanding into Canada with on-demand services
- Increasing customer adoption of OTT services resulting in downsizing of TV packages
- Growing consumption of OTT TV services and on-demand streaming video, as well as the proliferation of devices, such as tablets, that consume large quantities of bandwidth, will require ongoing capital investment
- Realization of cost savings related to operating efficiencies enabled by a growing direct fibre footprint, changes in consumer behaviour and product innovation, digital adoption, product and service enhancements, expanding self-serve capabilities, new call centre and digital investments, other improvements to the customer service experience, management workforce reductions including attrition and retirements, and lower contracted rates from our suppliers
- No adverse material financial, operational or competitive consequences of changes in or implementation of regulations affecting our communication and technology services business
Assumptions Concerning our Bell Media Segment
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal operational assumptions with respect to our Bell Media segment:
- Overall revenue expected to reflect continued scaling of our strategic audience management (SAM) TV and Bell demand-side-platform (DSP) buying platforms, as well as DTC subscriber growth contributing towards the advancement of our digital-first media strategy
- Continued escalation of media content costs to secure quality programming
- Continued scaling of Crave through broader content offering, user experience improvements and expanded distribution
- Continued investment in Noovo original programming to better serve our French-language customers with a wider array of content on their preferred platforms
- Leveraging of first-party data to improve targeting, advertisement delivery and attribution
- Ability to successfully acquire and produce highly rated programming and differentiated content
- Building and maintaining strategic supply arrangements for content across all screens and platforms
- No adverse material financial, operational or competitive consequences of changes in or implementation of regulations affecting our media business
Financial Assumptions Concerning BCE
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal financial assumptions with respect to BCE for 2023:
- An estimated post-employment benefit plans service cost of approximately $210 million
- An estimated net return on post-employment benefit plans of approximately $100 million
- Depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $4,900 million to $4,950 million
- Interest expense of approximately $1,375 million to $1,425 million
- Interest paid of approximately $1,400 million to $1,450 million
- An average effective tax rate of approximately 26%
- Non-controlling interest of approximately $65 million
- Contributions to post-employment benefit plans of approximately $60 million
- Payments under other post-employment benefit plans of approximately $75 million
- Income taxes paid (net of refunds) of approximately $800 million to $900 million
- Weighted average number of BCE common shares outstanding of approximately 914 million
- An annual common share dividend of $3.87 per share
Assumptions underlying expected reductions in contributions to our pension plans
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following principal assumptions underlying expected reductions in contributions to our pension plans:
- At the relevant time, our defined benefit (DB) pension plans will remain in funded positions with going concern surpluses and maintain solvency ratios that exceed the minimum legal requirements for a contribution holiday to be taken for applicable DB and defined contribution components
- No significant declines in our DB pension plans’ financial position due to declines in investment returns or interest rates
- No material experience losses from other unforeseen events such as through litigation or changes in laws, regulations or actuarial standards
The foregoing assumptions, although considered reasonable by BCE on February 2, 2023, may prove to be inaccurate. Accordingly, our actual results could differ materially from our expectations as set forth on this Webpage.
Material Risks
Important risk factors that could cause our assumptions and estimates to be inaccurate and actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements, including our 2023 financial guidance, are listed below. The realization of our forward-looking statements, including our ability to meet our 2023 financial guidance targets, essentially depends on our business performance, which, in turn, is subject to many risks. Accordingly, readers are cautioned that any of the following risks could have a material adverse effect on our forward-looking statements. These risks include, but are not limited to: the negative effect of adverse economic conditions, including a potential recession, and related inflationary cost pressures, higher interest rates and financial and capital market volatility; the negative effect of adverse conditions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events; a declining level of business and consumer spending, and the resulting negative impact on the demand for, and prices of, our products and services; regulatory initiatives, proceedings and decisions, government consultations and government positions that affect us and influence our business including, without limitation, concerning mandatory access to networks, spectrum auctions, the imposition of consumer-related codes of conduct, approval of acquisitions, broadcast and spectrum licensing, foreign ownership requirements, privacy and cybersecurity obligations and control of copyright piracy; the inability to implement enhanced compliance frameworks and to comply with legal and regulatory obligations; unfavourable resolution of legal proceedings; the intensity of competitive activity and the failure to effectively respond to evolving competitive dynamics; the level of technological substitution and the presence of alternative service providers contributing to disruptions and disintermediation in each of our business segments; changing customer behaviour and the expansion of cloud-based, OTT and other alternative solutions; advertising market pressures from economic conditions, fragmentation and non-traditional/global digital services; rising content costs and challenges in our ability to acquire or develop key content; higher Canadian smartphone penetration and reduced or slower immigration flow; the inability to protect our physical and non-physical assets from events such as information security attacks, unauthorized access or entry, fire and natural disasters; the failure to implement effective data governance; the failure to evolve and transform our networks, systems and operations using next-generation technologies while lowering our cost structure; the inability to drive a positive customer experience; the failure to attract, develop and retain a diverse and talented team capable of furthering our strategic imperatives; the failure to adequately manage health and safety concerns; labour disruptions and shortages; the failure to maintain operational networks; the risk that we may need to incur significant capital expenditures to provide additional capacity and reduce network congestion; the inability to maintain service consistency due to network failures or slowdowns, the failure of other infrastructure, or disruptions in the delivery of services; service interruptions or outages due to legacy infrastructure and the possibility of instability as we transition towards converged wireline and wireless networks and newer technologies; the failure by us, or by other telecommunications carriers on which we rely to provide services, to complete planned and sufficient testing, maintenance, replacement or upgrade of our or their networks, equipment and other facilities, which could disrupt our operations including through network or other infrastructure failures; events affecting the functionality of, and our ability to protect, test, maintain, replace and upgrade, our networks, IT systems, equipment and other facilities; the complexity of our operations; the failure to implement or maintain highly effective processes and information technology (IT) systems; in-orbit and other operational risks to which the satellites used to provide our satellite TV services are subject; our dependence on third-party suppliers, outsourcers, and consultants to provide an uninterrupted supply of the products and services we need; the failure of our vendor selection, governance and oversight processes, including our management of supplier risk in the areas of security, data governance and responsible procurement; the quality of our products and services and the extent to which they may be subject to defects or fail to comply with applicable government regulations and standards; reputational risks and the inability to meaningfully integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations into our business strategy and operations; the failure to take appropriate actions to adapt to current and emerging environmental impacts, including climate change; pandemics, epidemics and other health risks, including health concerns about radio frequency emissions from wireless communications devices and equipment; the inability to adequately manage social issues; the failure to develop and implement strong corporate governance practices; various internal and external factors could challenge our ability to achieve our ESG targets including, without limitation, those related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging; the inability to access adequate sources of capital and generate sufficient cash flows from operating activities to meet our cash requirements, fund capital expenditures and provide for planned growth; uncertainty as to whether dividends will be declared by BCE’s board of directors or whether the dividend on common shares will be increased; the inability to manage various credit, liquidity and market risks; the failure to reduce costs, as well as unexpected increases in costs; the failure to evolve practices to effectively monitor and control fraudulent activities; new or higher taxes due to new tax laws or changes thereto or in the interpretation thereof, and the inability to predict the outcome of government audits; the impact on our estimates and our financial statements from a number of factors; and pension obligation volatility and increased contributions to post-employment benefit plans.
We caution that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect our results. We encourage investors to also read BCE’s Safe Harbour Notice Concerning Forward-Looking Statements dated February 2, 2023, for additional information with respect to certain of these and other assumptions and risks, to be filed by BCE with the Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities (available at Sedar.com) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (available at SEC.gov). This document is available at BCE.ca.