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This section describes assumptions made by BCE in preparing forward-looking statements and general risks that could affect all BCE group companies and specific risks that could affect BCE Inc. and certain of the other BCE group companies.
For a more complete description of assumptions made by BCE in preparing forward-looking statements and risks that could affect our business and results, please see the section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results contained in the BCE 2005 MD&A set out on pages 42 to 56 of the Bell Canada Enterprises 2005 Annual Report filed by BCE Inc. with the Canadian securities commissions (available on BCE Inc.’s site at www.bce.ca and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under Form 40-F (available on EDGAR at www.sec.gov), as updated in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As, and as further updated in this MD&A.
Please also refer to the BCE 2005 AIF for a detailed description of:
- the principal legal proceedings involving BCE;
- certain regulatory initiatives and proceedings concerning the Bell Canada companies.
Please see Recent Developments in Legal Proceedings, in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As, and in this MD&A, for a description of recent developments, since the BCE 2005 AIF, in the principal legal proceedings involving us.
In addition, please see Risks that Could Affect Certain BCE Group Companies – Bell Canada Companies – Changes to Wireline Regulation in the Section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As, and in this MD&A, for a description of recent developments, since the BCE 2005 AIF, in the principal regulatory initiatives and proceedings concerning the Bell Canada companies.
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Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-looking statements made in the BCE 2005 MD&A, in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As and in this MD&A are based on a number of assumptions that we believed were reasonable on the day we made the forward-looking statements and that, unless otherwise indicated in this MD&A or in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As, have not significantly changed as at the date of this MD&A. In the BCE 2005 MD&A, we outlined the principal assumptions that we made in the preparation of our forward-looking statements relating to BCE’s expected financial and operational performance in 2006. These assumptions include:
- assumptions about the Canadian economy related to GDP growth and a slight increase in the business prime rate and the Consumer Price Index
- market assumptions related to: (i) growth in the overall Canadian telecommunications market, (ii) the continued decrease in the residential voice telecommunications market, (iii) the increase in wireline competition, and (iv) the growth in revenue for the Canadian wireless industry, the video market and the Internet market
- operational and financial assumptions related to: (i) growth in wireless, video and high-speed Internet subscribers as well as ARPU for these services, (ii) the continued decrease in our network access services, (iii) cost savings, (iv) restructuring costs, (v) amortization expense, (vi) total net benefit plans cost, and (vii) Bell Canada’s capital intensity
- assumptions related to the proposed recapitalization of, and public offering of a minority stake in, Telesat.
Please see Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results in the BCE 2005 MD&A, for a more complete description of the above-mentioned assumptions.
Updates to the Description of Assumptions
The following are significant updates to the description of assumptions set out in the section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results contained in the BCE 2005 MD&A as updated in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As. For ease of reference, the updates to the description of assumptions below have, where applicable, been presented under the same headings and in the same order contained in the section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results set out in the BCE 2005 MD&A.
Operational and Financial Assumptions
Financial
On July 7, 2006, following the formation of Bell Aliant, some employees of Bell Canada and employees of Aliant became employed by Bell Aliant. Those employees stopped participating in and accruing benefits in the Bell Canada and Aliant pension plans and started participating and accruing benefits under new Bell Aliant pension plans. As a result, we remeasured the assets and obligations of these pension plans based on current market values and actuarial assumptions as of July 7, 2006. One of these assumptions is the discount rate, which we re-evaluated at 5.6% at July 7, 2006 (from 5.2% at December 31, 2005) to reflect the increase in long-term market interest rates since December 31, 2005.
Mainly as a result of various income tax adjustments, resulting from the decrease in corporate federal income tax rates, the elimination of the large corporation tax stemming from the 2006 federal budget, and other adjustments to our estimated future tax liability, BCE’s effective tax rate in 2006 is now expected to be approximately 25% rather than approximately 30% as previously anticipated.
Assumptions Related to the Proposed Income Trust Conversion
In making forward-looking statements concerning Bell Canada’s proposed income trust conversion, we have assumed that the various conditions precedent to the Arrangement can be satisfied in accordance with their terms. Please refer to the section entitled Updates to the Description of Risks – Risks that Could Affect All BCE Group Companies – Risks Relating to the Arrangement below for more details.
Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results
A risk is the possibility that an event might happen in the future that could have a negative effect on the financial condition, results of operations or business of one or more BCE group companies. Part of managing our business is to understand what these potential risks could be and to minimize them where we can.
The actual effect of any event on our business and results could be materially different from what we currently anticipate. In addition, the risks described below and elsewhere in this MD&A do not include all possible risks.
In the BCE 2005 MD&A, we provided a detailed review of risks that could affect our financial condition, results of operations or business and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. This detailed description of risks, as updated in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As, is further updated in this MD&A. The risks described in the BCE 2005 MD&A include risks associated with:
- our ability to implement our strategies and plans in order to produce the expected benefits and growth prospects
- general economic and market conditions and the level of consumer confidence and spending, and the demand for, and prices of, our products and services
- the intensity of competitive activity from both traditional and new players, which is increasing following the introduction of new technologies that have reduced barriers to entry that existed in the industry, and its impact on our ability to retain existing, and attract new customers, and on pricing strategies and financial results
- our ability to transform our cost structure, improve productivity and contain capital intensity while maintaining quality of services
- our ability to anticipate, and respond to, changes in technology, industry standards and client needs and migrate to and deploy new technologies, including VoIP, and offer new products and services rapidly and achieve market acceptance thereof
- the availability and cost of capital required to implement our business plan and fund capital and other expenditures
- our ability to find suitable companies to acquire or to partner with, to integrate the operations of acquired companies and to complete dispositions
- the impact of pending or future litigation and of adverse changes in laws or regulations, including tax laws, or in how they are interpreted, or of adverse regulatory initiatives or proceedings, including decisions by the CRTC affecting our ability to compete effectively
- the risk of litigation should BCE Inc. or Bell Canada stop funding a subsidiary or change the nature of its investment, or dispose of all or part of its interest, in a subsidiary
- the risk of increased pension fund contributions
- our ability to effectively manage labour relations, negotiate satisfactory labour agreements, including new agreements replacing expired labour agreements, while avoiding work stoppages, and maintain service to customers and minimize disruptions during strikes and other work stoppages
- events affecting the functionality of our networks or of the networks of other telecommunications carriers on which we rely to provide our services
- our ability to improve and upgrade, on a timely basis, our various IT systems and software on which many aspects of our businesses depend
- our ability to complete the proposed recapitalization of, and public offering of a minority stake in, Telesat
- stock market volatility
- the risk that licences on which we rely to provide services might be revoked or not renewed when they expire
- our ability to retain major customers
- health concerns about radio frequency emissions
- launch and in-orbit risks and the ability to obtain appropriate insurance coverage at favourable rates, concerning Telesat’s satellites, certain of which are used by Bell ExpressVu to provide services.
Please see Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results in the BCE 2005 MD&A for a more complete description of the above-mentioned risks.
Updates to the Description of Risks
The following are significant updates to the description of risks contained in the section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results contained in the BCE 2005 MD&A as updated in the BCE 2006 First and Second Quarter MD&As. For ease of reference, the updates to the description of risks below have, where applicable, been presented under the same headings and in the same order contained in the section entitled Assumptions Made in the Preparation of Forward-Looking Statements and Risks that Could Affect our Business and Results set out in the BCE 2005 MD&A.
Risks That Could Affect All BCE Group Companies
Liquidity
On September 18, 2006, Telesat Holding Inc. and its shareholder BCE Inc. announced that a preliminary prospectus and a registration statement had been filed for a public offering of non-voting shares of Telesat Holding Inc. in Canada and the United States. Upon closing of the offering, Telesat Holding Inc. is to become the parent company of Telesat Canada. Telesat Holding Inc. and Telesat Canada are collectively referred to in this section as Telesat. Prior to completion of the offering, Telesat is expected to incur certain indebtedness the net proceeds of which, together with the net proceeds of the offering, are to be distributed to BCE Inc. BCE Inc.’s 2006 financial plan assumes completion of the above-mentioned public offering and recapitalization which, together, are expected to provide BCE Inc. proceeds of approximately $1 billion. However, these transactions will take several months to complete and they are subject to conditions including approval by various regulatory and governmental authorities, as well as BCE Inc. being satisfied that prevailing market conditions are conducive to allowing BCE Inc. to obtain a favourable and acceptable valuation in respect of Telesat. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that Telesat’s proposed recapitalization and public offering will be completed. Telesat’s inability to complete the proposed public offering and/or recapitalization would have an adverse effect on BCE Inc.’s liquidity.
Pension Fund Contributions
On October 23, 2006, the Bell Canada pension fund acquired from us 6.4 million CGI Group Inc. shares and other marketable securities, which had an aggregate market value of $83 million. The acquisitions reduce our cash contributions to the Bell Canada pension fund in 2006.
Renegotiating Labour Agreements
The following important collective agreements will expire in 2006:
- the collective agreement between the Canadian Telecommunications Employees’ Association (CTEA) and Bell Canada, representing approximately 700 communications sales employees will expire on December 31, 2006.
- the collective agreements between the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Union of Canada (CEP) and Expertech Network Installation Inc. representing approximately 240 clerical and 1,300 craft employees both will expire on November 30, 2006.
Risks Relating to the Arrangement
The completion of the proposed Arrangement is subject to a number of conditions including: (i) approval of the Arrangement by BCE Inc. and Bell Canada shareholders in accordance with applicable law and court orders granted in connection with the Arrangement, (ii) the receipt of all necessary governmental, regulatory and stock exchange approvals and other security holder approvals and other consents, (iii) dissent rights not being exercised in respect of more than a level of the outstanding common shares approved by the BCE Inc. Board, and (iv) there being no change with respect to the income tax laws or policies of Canada or to the telecommunications and other regulatory laws or policies of Canada that would have a material adverse effect on the transactions contemplated by the Arrangement. These conditions may not be satisfied, or may not be satisfied on terms satisfactory to BCE Inc. or Bell Canada, in which case the proposed Arrangement could be modified, restructured or terminated. In addition, the Boards of Directors of each of BCE Inc. and Bell Canada have the discretion to determine not to proceed with the Arrangement.
Risks That Could Affect Certain BCE Group Companies
Bell Canada Companies
Changes to Wireline Regulation
Decisions of Regulatory Agencies
Commitment Under the CRTC Deferral Account Mechanism
On February 16, 2006, the CRTC issued Telecom Decision 2006-9, where it concluded on the ways that incumbent telephone companies should clear the accumulated balances in their deferral accounts. As required by the CRTC, on September 1, 2006, Bell Canada filed proposals with the CRTC to clear $479.3 million from its deferral account. If approved by the CRTC, the proposals would improve access to communications for persons with disabilities and extend broadband access to some 220,000 potential customers in 264 communities across Ontario and Québec where it would not otherwise be made available on a commercial basis.
Due to the nature and number of uncertainties which remain concerning the disposition of accumulated balances in the deferral accounts, we are unable to estimate the impact of the decision on our financial results at this time.
Price Cap Framework Review
On May 9, 2006, the CRTC issued Telecom Public Notice CRTC 2006-5 initiating a proceeding to establish the price cap framework to replace the existing framework that ends May 31, 2007. On July 10, 2006, Bell Canada, Bell Aliant and Saskatchewan Telecommunications filed a pricing framework proposal which reflects the dramatic changes that have taken place in the industry. The proposed framework would come into effect on June 1, 2007 and apply for a period of two years.
The above-mentioned entities proposed that there should be no regulatory limits on price increases in areas where services are available over alternative facilities, allowing consumers and competition in these areas to drive market prices. In areas where alternative facilities are not available, the above-mentioned entities proposed that service prices remain subject to regulation with upward pricing capped, on average, at current levels. In keeping with both the recommendations of the Telecom Policy Review Panel issued in March 2006 and the recent draft policy direction for the CRTC outlined by the Minister of Industry, the proposed regulation would interfere with market forces to the least extent possible. The entities’ evidence was subject to an interrogatory process as well as a public hearing which took place in October 2006. The CRTC intends to issue a decision on this proceeding by April 30, 2007.
There is a risk that the CRTC may not accept the entities’ proposals to rely on market forces to the maximum extent possible and may impose limitations on the Bell Canada companies’ marketing flexibility, impeding their ability to respond to market forces.
Decision on VoIP Regulation
On May 12, 2005, the CRTC released Telecom Decision 2005-28 which determined the way the CRTC will regulate VoIP services. In Order in Council P.C. 2006-305, dated May 4, 2006, the Governor in Council referred Decision 2005-28 back to the CRTC for reconsideration, directing the CRTC to complete its reconsideration by September 1, 2006.
On September 1, 2006, the CRTC issued Telecom Decision CRTC 2006-53, reaffirming its findings in Decision 2005-28 concerning the regulation of VoIP services. Pursuant to section 12(7) of the Telecommunications Act, the Governor in Council, if it chooses to do so, has 90 days to vary or rescind the CRTC’s findings. There is no assurance that the Governor in Council will rescind or vary the CRTC’s findings in a manner favourable to us.
Forbearance from Regulation of Local Exchange Services
On April 6, 2006, the CRTC issued Telecom Decision CRTC 2006-15 which established a framework for the forbearance from regulation of local exchange services. The decision denied Bell Aliant’s application for regulatory forbearance in 32 exchanges in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. The denial of Bell Aliant’s forbearance application in respect of the Halifax market is the subject of an appeal to the Federal Court of Appeal by Bell Aliant. The Federal Court of Appeal granted Bell Aliant leave to appeal the decision in an order dated September 22, 2006.
On May 12, 2006, Bell Canada, Bell Aliant, Saskatchewan Telecommunications and TELUS Communications Company (TELUS) filed a petition to the Governor in Council requesting that the Minister of Industry recommend to the Governor in Council that Decision 2006-15 be referred back to the CRTC for reconsideration. Specifically, the companies requested that the CRTC be directed to reconsider the pre-forbearance, forbearance and post-forbearance rules in Decision 2006-15 in light of the conclusions and recommendations contained in the Telecom Policy Review Panel’s Final Report issued in March 2006.
On September 1, 2006, the CRTC issued Telecom Public Notice CRTC 2006-12 in which it is seeking comments regarding whether the “transitional” market share loss threshold of 20 percent as a precondition to the repeal of the winback rule and the market share forbearance criterion threshold of 25 percent established in Decision 2006-15 are appropriate.
On October 5, 2006, TELUS applied to the CRTC to review and vary one of the forbearance criteria defined in Decision 2006-15. TELUS’ application requests that the CRTC remove or amend the forbearance criteria related to meeting certain quality of service standards related to incumbent local exchange carriers’ wholesale services.
There is no guarantee that the outcomes in any of these proceedings will improve the likelihood or speed with which Bell Canada and Bell Aliant will be granted forbearance. |
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